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2014 NXN National Championships 101 – An Illinois ViewPublished by
A look at Saturday’s national championship race in Portland
By Michael Newman
The eleventh edition of the Nike Cross Nationals moves from Portland Meadows to Glendoveer Golf Course in Portland for the first time this year. It could be a plus for the Illinois runners that will be competing on a natural cross country terrain compared to the man-made set up of Portland Meadows. Conditions will be wet for this race with rain at the end of the week with a 70% chance of rain with temperatures in the low 50’s at race time.
Illinois will be well represented in Portland with three teams and four individuals ready to toe the line Saturday morning. Chances of top of the chart finishes for these teams and individuals look good.
The Girls race should display the top 2 3A teams in the state Naperville North and Palatine challenging for top finishes. Naperville North has been strong all season which resulted in a 3A state championship. The Huskies rely on a tight pack to lead them to success. Judy Pendergast has been the top runner for this team the last two races. Five different runners have been their #1 runner at invitational meets this year. That is a testimony of how deep and good this team actually is. Senior Elly DeTurris is the leader of this team. She is the glue that keeps their front pack together. Chances that this squad could place in the top three on Saturday are good.
3A state runner-up Palatine is running their best races at the end of the season. We should see more of the same kind of racing in this meet. Kelly O’Brien finished third at the state meet. She followed that up with a strong seventh place finish at the NXN Midwest Regional Meet in Terre Haute. She will provide low points for this team. Amy Kieliszewski and Megan Beach are two of the most improved runners in the state this season. Their emergence heads a strong pack that the Pirates will need to be one of the three top teams. If they maintain a tight split between their second through fifth runners, that top finish could happen.
We all know how good Anna Sophia Keller is through her races in state the past two seasons. The nation should get a glimpse of how good this sophomore is on Saturday. The 16:27 time that she ran at the state meet in November is the seventh fastest ever at the state meet at Detweiller Park. It was also the third fastest time on that day (behind Maryjeanne Gilbert and Lindsay Graham). It would not surprise me if she is in the top 15 in this race.
The Illinois Boys teams have not received the respect in the national rankings this season. A great race from Sandburg in this meet on Saturday should change that. This team has demonstrated great pack running. Only running the first 400 around the turn at Detweiller Park at the state meet prevented them from winning the 3A state championship. They had to settle for second place behind Hinsdale Central. The redeemed themselves with a seven second five runner split in winning the NXN Midwest Regional a week later. Just like Naperville North’s Girls team, this team is deep and talented. Tom Brennan has been the top runner most of the season. Sean Torpy was the first runner at the regional meet. The key for this team is keeping the split and having that pack a little closer to the front. They have the tools to finish in the top three in this race.
Three of the top runners in the state will also be competing in this Boys race. Jesse Reiser was undefeated this season heading into last weekend’s Foot Locker Midwest Regional race. Getting sick last week could be the best thing that could happened to the 3A state champ. He only used enough energy to finish third and qualify for San Diego. He has been through this before. He finished 13th in this race a year ago. His competitive nature will have him in the front. He will challenge Washington’s Tanner Anderson for the individual championship.
Matt Pereira may only be a sophomore, but he races like a senior. His perseverance has shown in his racing the last three meets finishing third in his sectional and state races and fourth at the NXN Midwest Regional. He was thinking of running the Foot Locker Regional race but changed his mind. That could benefit him in this race on Saturday. He sticks to the front of the pack. His strength may push him to a top ten finish.
Ryan Clevenger redeemed himself at the NXN Midwest Regional race. He was disappointed with his fourth place finish in the 3A state race but bounced back to finish 5th to qualify for Portland. He was with the front pack for the first two miles last Saturday at Kenosha before fading and finishing 37th. You can expect him to bounce back and be towards the front in this race. A top 20 finish is not out of the question.
Here is a look at each of the teams, the team races, and individual races that will take place on Saturday. You can click on some of the team names and individual runners’ names to find out more information on them form DyeStat’s TFX database. Good luck to all runners that will be participating in this race.
Girls Championship Race (10:05 AM PST, 12:05 PM CST)
Teams (In DyeStat National Rankings Order as of 11/27/14, last 3 meet performances listed)
1 – Fayetteville Manlius NY
Outlook – The Hornets started out the season as the top ranked team nationally. They dropped to #7 after a second place finish at the McQuaid Invitational. Wins at the Manhattan Invitational and the New York Class A State Meet moved them back on top. They are looking to win their eighth national championship in the last nine years. They ran a great 35 second split on five last week in winning the NXN New York Regional. Olivia Ryan stepped up as the top runner last week and will need to be in the top 25 overall this Saturday. The team will be in great shape for the championship if they can keep their split under 40 seconds for their five runners.
2 – Great Oak CA
Outlook – Great Oak has been able to save up their energy for this Saturday’s race. They easily won the CIF D1 Championships last Saturday putting five runners in the first twenty overall. Destiny Collins has been one of the top runners in the country. At the beginning of the season at the Seaside Invitational, she ran 15:58 for 3 miles. You can expect her up front on Saturday. The key will be the split between Collins and their second runner Kiyena Beatty. Last week, the gap was 30 seconds. With Collins in the top ten, the split would need to be near 20 seconds for this team to be on top. Expect their 5 runner split to be 50 seconds or under.
3 – Carmel IN
Outlook – The Greyhounds had dominated their competition all year easily winning the Indiana State Championship. It was a little cozier for them at the NXN Midwest Regional when they were only ahead of Naperville North by 10 points. This is their fifth straight appearance to Nationals so the experience of this weekend should not affect them. This team thrives off of tight pack running. At the state meet, their five runner split was only 21 seconds. At NXN Regionals, it was 34 seconds. That split will need to be near 25 seconds for this team to contend for a national championship. Haley Harris has been their front runner most of the season. Freshman Madelyn Dalton stepped up as the #1 runner at the regional meet. One of those runners needs to be in the top 30 overall with a tight split for this team to bring home hardware from Oregon.
4 – Naperville North IL
Outlook – The 3A Illinois state champions make a return trip to Portland anxious for a top five finish. This team has gained strength from its pack running. They did not run their best race of the year finishing third at the Roy Griak Invitational at the end of September having front runner Elly DeTurris not able to finish the race. The Huskies looked strong in their state meet win with three all-state runners and running the fifth fastest team time ever on the hallowed Detweiller Park course. You can expect them to have a tight pack again on Saturday. The key will be keeping three runners within 10 seconds of each other. North could be a big surprise up front in the team standings in this meet.
5 – Palatine IL
Outlook – The 3A Illinois runner-ups have come on strong the last month and could be a factor in the first three in this meet. Kelly O’Brien ran a great state race finishing third and could find herself in the first 15 in this meet. Amy Kieliszewski will be a plus for this team if she can stay within 20 seconds of her teammate. Their split at regionals was 52 seconds. This team could be up front if their five runner split is closer to their state performance of 42 seconds.
6 – American Fork UT
Outlook – The Utah 5A state champions did not run their best race of the year at the NXN Southwest Meet but still won. Look for American Fork to bounce back in Portland on Saturday. Cami Squires and Samantha Hollingsworth have been the front runners for this team this year. The two will need to be within 10 seconds of each other at this meet. Watch for the split between the front runners and Lexie Green in this race. She was 47 seconds behind at the regional race. At state, that split was only 17 seconds. Their five runner split needs to be under 45 seconds for this team to be in contention for a top finish.
7 – Green Hope NC
Outlook – Green Hope finished second at the NXN Southeast Regional behind the runner-up finish in the race by Elly Henes. Part of the second place finish came from the fact that Katie Tomasi, who had been their second runner most of the season including the state meet, was the sixth runner at Cary. She has been typically 40 seconds behind Henes. The North Carolina 4A champs could have a high finish if that happens and their overall five runner split can stay under 65 seconds.
8 – Saugus CA
Outlook – The California D2 champions could be the surprise in this race. Samantha Ortega finished fifth in that race and will be towards the front here. Remember, Ortega did have a dominating win at the Roy Griak Invitational at the end of September. Ashley Heys has been their second runner most of the season. This team will be in good shape if she can stay within 20 seconds of Ortega. Their split was 51 seconds last week at the state race. That needs to come down on Saturday for this team to be in contention for a top five finish.
10 – La Salle Academy RI
Outlook – La Salle Academy Finished third at the NXN Northeast Regional last weekend even though normal #1 runner Eliza Rego fell in the race. She was the team’s second runner. They qualified for Portland on an at-large bid. The Rhode Island state champions have been relying on strong front Rego most of the season. Earlier in the year at the Great American XC Festival in North Carolina, Rego ran 17:38 for a strong fourth place finish. The team averages a 70 second split on their first five runners. That needs to come down on Saturday.
11 – Desert Vista AZ
Outlook – This team could be a surprise in the team standings. The Arizona D1 Champions have Daniele Jones up front to lead them. She opened eyes when she ran 16:42 to finish second at the Desert Twilight XC Festival at the beginning of October. She followed that up a month later with a state championship. This team has a big split on their scoring five. It was 123 seconds in their state race and 106 seconds at their regional race. With Jones being up front, you can expect a large gap. This team needs to have that split under 90 seconds for a chance to place in the top 10 in this meet.
13 – Hebron TX
Outlook – The Texas 6A champions have a solid top two in Laura Fairchild and Megan Montgomery. The freshman Fairchild stepped up to finish 7th in the state meet with Montgomery 14 seconds back. It was Montgomery’s turn to be up front when she was the first runner for the team at the regional meet with Fairchild close behind only a second back. The two need to be close together for a good race from this team. They ran a great 41 second split on five at the regional race. Hebron will need that kind of effort for a top ten finish in this meet.
14 – Wayzata MN
Outlook – The defending national champions have been running strong in their last two meets winning the Minnesota AA state championship and then the NXN Heartland Regional a week later. Anna French finished 7th at her state meet and was the front runner at regionals leads this team. The team tasted success at the state race with having a 50 second split on their five scoring runners. They will need to have that kind of race on Saturday. Second and third runners Annika Lerdall and Michaela Keller-Miller need to be within 20 seconds of French for that to happen.
15 – Saratoga Springs NY
Outlook – The Blue Streaks looked strong finishing second behind Fayetteville Manlius at last week’s NXN New York Regional. Spencer Hayes finished fourth in that race to lead her team and the two previous meets. At the New York Class A State Meet and the New York Federations Championships, their split on five runners was under 40 seconds. In the snowy conditions at the regional meet last week, it was 60 seconds. This team has the talent to keep their split under 40 seconds. If that happens, it could find themselves placing in the first seven teams.
17 – Coe-Brown NH
Outlook – Coe-Brown easily win the New Hampshire D2 State Meet and the New Hampshire Meet of Champions. They finished a distant second behind La Salle Academy at last week’s NXN Northeast Regional. Hannah Parker has been the #1 runner on this team most of this season. Last week, she ran together with teammate Elisabeth Danis. They have run within an average of five seconds of each other most of the season. Their five runner split was 92 seconds in the snowy conditions in New York last week. It has been closer to 70 seconds most of the season. This team could finish in the top 10 with that kind of split.
19 – Unionville PA
Outlook – Unionville bounced back from a second place finish in the Pennsylvania 3A state meet to win the NXN Northeast Meet last weekend. Their five runner split has been near 80 seconds most of the season. Expect it to be close to those times this weekend. Olivia Young finished third in last weekend’s meet and should be up front for her team again in this meet.
20 – Blacksburg VA
Outlook – Blacksburg won the NXN Southeast Regional from top ten finishes by seniors Bonnie Angermeier and Jennifer Fleming. The Virginia 3A champions have been keeping their five runner split under 70 seconds most of this season. Last week it was 61 seconds. If Fleming and Angermeier can finish in the first 50 overall with that kind of split, this team could flirt with a top ten team finish.
22 – Camas WA
Outlook – Camas makes it to Portland even without star runner Alexa Efraimson who took the professional route. Freshman Emma Jenkins has stepped up to be the front runner for the Washington 4A state champions. Alissa Pudlitzke was only three seconds behind Jenkins in the state race. At regionals, the gap was 21 seconds. Watch for Pudlitzke to be close to her teammate Jenkins in this race. This team could be in the top ten, but will need their first runner in the first 50 with a split near 60 seconds.
24 – Marcus TX
Outlook – This team looks to bounce back from second place finishes in the NXN South and Texas 6A State Meet to area rival Hebron whom they defeated in their Texas Regional meet. Maddy Reed finished ninth in the state meet and could finish in the first 25 overall on Saturday. Payton Brown and Quinn Owen were within 16 seconds of Reed in the state meet. They will need that kind of effort in order for the team to place in the top 10.
27 – Davis UT
Outlook – Davis was second place in the Utah 5A State Meet behind American Fork by only 12 points. They finished third in the NXN Southwest Regional receiving an at-large bid from that. Aubrey Argyle finished second in the state meet and could be a factor towards the front in this race. The team had a 31 second split on their 2-5 runners at the state meet. The next week with a bad race from #2 runner Ally Geisler, the gap between Argyle and the pack was 55 seconds. A 75 second split on five runner could mean good things could happen for this team.
28 – Shenendehowa NY
Outlook – Earned an at-large berth to Portland with a third place finish at the NXN New York Regional despite not qualifying for their state meet. They ran only a nineteen second split on their first five runners in regionals. Their second place finish at the New York Federation Championships has given them a boost. Danielle Jordan has been their front runner all year. She finished 8th in the Feds race and could be in the top 50 in Portland. Most of the season, their split has been between 50 and 60 seconds. A lower split with Jordan in the top 50 could put this team in contention for a top ten finish.
29 – Coeur D’Alene ID
Outlook – The Idaho 5A state champions punched their ticket to Portland with a second place finish at the NXN Northwest Regional. Kara Story finished second in the state race leading this team. The first three split on this team has been typically near 40 seconds with a five runner split averaging 75 seconds.
35 – Willmar MN
Outlook – Willmar ran a great race at NXN Heartland to finish second after finishing third at the Minnesota AA State meet. Part of their qualifying success was keeping their first four runners within six seconds of each other. The name of the game for Willmar is a tight pack. Their splits in the races at the end of the season have been under 23 seconds. If that pack can move up, this team could finish in the upper half of the team standings.
Girls Team Outlook Fayetteville-Manlius NY has been anxious to reclaim their national championship that they lost when they finished second to Wayzata MN last year. The Hornets will get that chance with a solid pack that could get them their eight national crown in nine years. Great Oak CA dominated the California D1 state meet holding back for this week’s race. They have the talent from preventing Fayetteville-Manlius to win.
The Midwest teams may make their presence known up front. All three squads have demonstrated tight packs towards the end of the season. Carmel IN is making their fifth straight trip to Portland and has the experience to cope with the mental strain of this race. Naperville North IL and Palatine IL were unsung teams early in the year, but have the right pieces to finish in the top three.
Defending national champion Wayzata MN was an underdog entering this race a year ago but came out on top. They will need to tighten their five runner split in order to repeat. American Fork UT could also find their way into the first five with three runners that could end up in the first thirty. A tighter pack than their regional race could put them in that spot.
Girls Individual Qualifiers (In Alphabetical Order)
Girls Individual Race Outlook
Most of the top ranked runners have chosen to race at the Foot Locker National Race next weekend. There is still quality in this deep field. Allie Ostrander (Central HS, Kenai AK) has race only once since her state win at the beginning of October. She did finish second to qualify for this race at the NXN Northwest Regional on snow covered conditions. Her resume is impressive this season running under 17 minutes for 5k twice this season. She is the one runner that I would watch out front in this race.
Ella Donaghu (Grant HS, Portland) defeated Ostrander at NXN Northwest Regional by more than three seconds. The Oregon 6A champion will have the hometown support in this race. She ran 17:14 for 5k to finish second at the Stanford Invitational at the end of September. She will be in the front in this race.
Fiona O’Keeffe (Davis HS CA) ran the fastest time of the day (16:57) last Saturday to win the California D1 championship. Her only defeat of the season in a major meet came in October at the Clovis Invitational when she finished second behind Destiny Collins (Great Oak HS, Temecula CA). Collins ran 16:57 at the Woodward Park course in Fresno, the same course used for the state meet. Collins has been slowed by tendonitis. She did finish third last week at state to lead her team to the D1 championship. Remember, she ran 15:58 for 3 miles at the Seaside Invitational at the beginning of September. She could be a factor for the individual championship. Marissa Williams (Palisades Charter, Pacific Palisades CA) was five seconds behind O’Keefe in the D1 race. You can expect her to be in the top ten in this race.
Katie Rainsberger (Air Academy, Colorado Springs CO) at the beginning of October jumped into the national spotlight running 16:41 for 5k to win the Desert Twilight XC Festival. She has gone undefeated this season including a Colorado 4A state championship and winning the NXN Southwest Regional. She will be towards the front in this race. Danielle Jones (Desert Vista HS, Phoenix AZ) finished behind Rainsberger at Desert Twilight and NXN Southwest. She helped her team qualify for Portland. She will help her team on Saturday with a low scoring number.
Bella Burda (Arlington HS, Lawrenceville NY) has gone undefeated this season in her races including wins in the Class A State Meet, New York Federation Championships, and last week at the NXN New York Regional. She finished 5th outdoors last spring in the 5k running 16:57. She could be a surprise up front in this race. Jessica Lawson (Corning HS NY) made her presence known nationally when she won the Manhattan Invitational in October running 14:18 on the 2.5 mile Van Cortlandt Park course. She has followed that up with second place finishes behind Burda at State, Feds, and the NXN New York Regional. The sophomore could be in the top ten in this race.
Bethany & Megan Hasz (Alexandra MN) traded off wins in their last two races with Bethany winning the NXN Heartland Regional while Megan won the AA state meet the week before. Both should be in the top 15 in this race. Stephanie Jenks (Linn-Mar HS, Marion IA) spends her fall season in the swimming pool for her school team helping them finish 5th at the Iowa State Meet. The next day, Jenks finished second at the NXN Heartland Regional, her first race of the year. She took it easy last Saturday at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional qualifying for San Diego finishing fifth. You can expect Jenks to be in the top ten in this meet even though she has only raced twice this season.
Sarah Kettel (Capital Home School, East Lansing MI) surprised many by winning the NXN Midwest Regional in the middle of November. Last weekend, she qualified for the Foot Locker Nationals by finishing 8th at the Midwest Regional in Kenosha. She has the talent to place in the top ten on Saturday. Audrey Belf (Seaholm HS, Birmingham MI) won the D1 championship in her state and finished a close second behind Kettel at Regionals. She also will be making the trip to San Diego next week placing fourth last weekend. Watch for her up front. The one runner ready to step to the national stage is Anna Sophia Keller (St. Anthony HS, Effingham IL). The sophomore has won two straight Illinois 1A championships and qualified twice for this race. Last year, she did not run concentrating on club swimming. She should be a surprise in the top ten in this race.
Other runners that I would keep an eye on up front in this race include Paige Hofstad (New Braunfels TX), Lindsey Bradley (Richland HS WA), Olivia Sargent (Pennsbury HS, Fairless Hills PA), Julia Heymach (Lamar HS, Houston TX), Lucy Biles (Herriman HS UT), Chloe Hansel (Los Lamos HS, Walnut Creek CA), Rachel McArthur (Patriot HS, Nokesville VA), Kelly O’Brien (Palatine HS IL), Anna French (Wayzata HS, Plymouth MN), and Elly Henes (Green Hope HS, Cary NC).
Boys Championship Race (11:35 AM PST, 1:35 PM CST)
Teams (In DyeStat National Rankings Order as of 11/27/14, last 3 meet performances listed)
1 – American Fork UT
Outlook – The Utah 5A State champions took the top spot in the DyeStat Rankings after their win in the Nebo Invitational at the end of September. They have never looked back including a state meet team record performance. Their regional win was by only three points ahead of state rival Davis. Zac Jacklin and Casey Clinger have been the top runners on this team all year. You can expect them in the top 20 in this race. Mackay Johns was within 12 seconds of the front two at regionals. He will need to be at that distance in Portland. Their Achilles could be their five runner split. It has been averaging near 50 seconds this year. It will need to be lower for this team to capture a national championship.
2 – Fayetteville Manlius NY
Outlook – A team that is peaking just at the right time. They won the NXN New York Regional last weekend behind the individual win by Bryce Millar. Kyle Barber was within 8 seconds of Millar in the teams Class A State win. He will need to be that close on Saturday. Peter Ryan will give the team a boost if he can be within 25 seconds of Millar. Their team split has been hovering near 60 seconds most of the year. In this meet, it will take a 43 second split on their first five to come out on top.
3 – Davis UT
Outlook – Davis showed they could contend for a national title after finishing three points behind top ranked American Fork at the NXN Southwest Regional. In that race, they kept their pack together running only a 23 second split on their five scoring runners. At the Utah 5A state meet where they finished 36 points behind American Fork, their split was 52 seconds. That split needs to stay close to 25 seconds for this team to come up on top. Josh Ward was their first runner in the regional race ahead of Stokton Smith. At state, Ward was 4th runner 18 seconds back. Ward running with Smith on Saturday could be a big plus for this team. 4 – Summit OR
Outlook – This team would be contending for the national championship if they had Matthew Maton in their lineup. The Oregon 5A state individual champion chose after his state race that he would be competing at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional the same day that the NXN Nationals would take place. Summit still made it to nationals without Maton finishing second at the NXN Northwest Regional. Alex Martin and Eric Fykerud, who finished 3-4 in the state meet, were the top two runners at Boise. The team’s split was only 40 seconds. Without Maton, it is hard to see this team finishing in the first ten on Saturday.
5 – Brea Olinda CA
Outlook – This team is different from the one that won the California 3A championship last Saturday. After their team was named to the NXN Nationals, their top runner and 3A state champion Austin Tamagno made the choice to run at the Foot Locker West Regionals that will be contested the same day as NXN. It is hard to speculate if this team would have been chosen if that was known before. With Tamagno in their top seven, this team would have been a trophy contender. Without his low number, it will be tough for this team to get into the top ten. Austin Shellito finished sixth in the state race and could contend for a top 25 spot overall. The split on five without Tamagno would have been 45 seconds.
6 – La Salle Academy RI
Outlook – La Salle Academy started the season as the top ranked team but dropped after a second place finish at the Bowdoin Invitational. They have come on strong towards the end of the year winning the Rhode Island State Meet, the New England XC Championships, and then the NXN Northeast Championship last weekend. The team ran a low 21 second split on five last week. Rhode Island individual state champion David Principe Jr., Matthew Bouthillette, and Dan Paiva are the top runners on this team. If they can place their top three runners in the first 40, La Salle could be in contention for the national championship.
7 – Timpanogos UT
Outlook – The Utah 4A state champions Timpanogos make it to Portland by a third place finish at the NXN Southwest Regional and an at-large bid. They ran a tight pack in that regional meet with only a 20 second split on their first five runners. Any one of four runners are capable of being their front runners on Saturday. At the NXN Regional, it was sophomore Joseph Benson, who finished 35th, that led the way. This team could finish in the top five, but will need to have a runner start there pack between 40th and 50th places.
8 – North Central WA
Outlook – Tanner Anderson will be at the front in this weekend’s individual race leading the Washington 3A state champions. With Anderson running all out up front, the focus will be on the 2-5 pack behind him. In the last two races, that split has been on an average 29 seconds. Their second runner Andrew Vandine, who finished 7th at their state meet, would need to be within 60 seconds of Anderson for this team to have a chance for a top five finish.
9 – St. Anthony’s NY
Outlook – The New York Federation Meet champions head into Portland after finishing second last week at the NXN New York Regional. This team jumped into the national spotlight dominating the Brown High School Invitational in the middle of October. In that race, #1 runner Patrick Tucker led the way running 15:09 and a third place finish. This team is capable of being a surprise on Saturday. Their split has averaged near 50 seconds in their last three meets. It will need to be near 42 seconds for this team to place in the top five.
10 – Liverpool NY
Outlook – This team has rebounded after not qualifying for the New York State meet by finishing third at the NXN New York Regional earning an at-large bid. They made their presence known this season when they finished second at the Manhattan Invitational in Mid-October. Ben Petrella finished second in the New York Class A meet. He will be the front runner for this team in this meet. When they run good, their split on five is near 40 seconds. In the Section 3 meet where they failed to qualify, it was 66 seconds. A 40-45 second split could put this team in the top seven overall.
13 – Ventura CA
Outlook – This is a team that could find their way into the top five. Ventura looked good in winning the California D2 state championships last weekend. Garrett Reynolds and Evan Askar finished in the top ten in that meet. Their split continues to improve. Last week, it was 36 seconds on their five scoring runners. The question will be whether this squad can rebound from the high of the state championship to come back in this race.
14 – Sandburg IL
Outlook – It was amazing to see some of the national media stating that Sandburg’s 7 second split on five was unbelievable. The thing is that this team has been running those kind of splits all season. Their only hiccup was a bad start at the Illinois 3A State meet when they got off to a lousy started which resulted in a second place finish. It is a team that is capable of a top five finish. At the Peoria Central Invitational at the beginning of October, they had 4 runners under 15 minutes for three miles at the fabled Detweiller Park course. In their sectional race, they had five runners under 15 with a 9 second split. Sean Torpy was their top runner at NXN Midwest. Tom Brennan was the top runner during the year. They won’t have a runner up front. A tight pack starting in the 30’s could place them towards the top.
16 – Jurupa Hills CA
Outlook – Finished second behind Ventura at the California 2A State meet. Michael Teran has been the front man for this team all year. He finished second last Saturday at state. This team ran a 62 second split at state last week. This team could be in the top seven but will need to have Teran in the first 30 with a team split of 45 seconds or under.
18 – Carmel IN
Outlook – Carmel bounced back from a tough state meet second place finish losing by seven points to finishing second at the NXN Midwest Sectional. Injuries riddled this team early in the year, but they rebounded led by Ben Veatch. The Indiana individual state champion should be towards the front in this race. Carmel had a tight pack in the regional meet with only 7 seconds separating their 2nd through 5th runners. If they can keep their overall split to 55 seconds with Veatch in the front, this team could surprise and end up in the top five.
22 – Christian Brothers Academy NJ
Outlook – Last year’s runners up are back and looking for a high finish. They did what they needed to do last week to advance finishing second behind La Salle Academy at the NXN Northeast Regional. Their meets the two weeks before that show that this team is capable of finishing in the top five. Blake Ferro is the #1 runner on this team. He could be in the top 25 in this race. Their split last week was 51 seconds. At the New Jersey Meet of Champions, the 5 runner split was only 21 seconds. Ferro will be up towards the front. The key will be keeping a tight five runner split along with keeping a 15 second split on their 2 through 5 runners.
24 – Wayzata MN
Outlook – This team could be a dark horse for the national championship just like Wayzata’s Girls team was a year ago. The Minnesota AA State Champions used strong front running from AA Individual champion Connor Olson to win the NXN Heartland Regional. Jared Carpenter, who finished 7th at the state meet, was 17 seconds behind Olson at the regional race. That has been the difference that he has been behind his teammate all season. Their overall split in that race was 58 seconds. It should be near 50 seconds in this meet. If it goes lower, good things could happen for this team.
26 – Severna Park MD
Outlook – The Maryland 4A state champions make a return trip to nationals even though they lost their top two runners due to graduation. A 16 second five runner split was all they needed in winning the NXN Southeast Regional. Kevin Hines finished fourth in his state meet. He has been the front runner for this team most of the year. Andrew Forsyth was 8 seconds behind Hines at the regional meet. Their five runner split has been tight all season. That kind of an effort could push their team into the top ten in this meet.
27 – Southlake Carroll TX
Outlook – Southlake Carroll has experienced tight finishes the past two meets winning by only 11 points to win the Texas 6A State Meet ahead of The Woodlands. The difference between the two schools was only 2 points at the NXN South Regional with Carroll coming out on top. Sophomore Reed Brown has stepped up to be the #1 runner on this team in the last three meets. Eli Canal should be close to Brown. Their split on five has been near 45 seconds coming down the stretch. It will need to be close to that if this team wants to finish near the top 10.
29 – The Woodlands TX
Outlook – The Texas 6A runner-ups have been close to state rival Southlake Carroll the last two weeks. They could go ahead of them in this national race. This team lives off of a tight pack. Matthew McClellan, Eric Croon, and Daniel Golden have been their top runners in the last three meets. Their split needs to be under 25 seconds for them to finish ahead of Southlake Carroll and be close to the top ten in the team standings.
32 – Daniel Boone TN
Outlook – The Tennessee D1 AAA State champions punched their ticket to Portland by finishing second at the NXN Southeast Regional. Adam Barnard has been the #1 runner for this team all year. He should be in the top ten in this meet. Their split on five runners last week was 93 seconds. That will need to come down for this team to finish in the upper half in the team standings on Saturday.
NR – Edina MN
Outlook – This team stepped up in a big way to make it to Portland. They failed to make it to the Minnesota State meet but bounced back to finish second at the NXN Heartland Regional. At their sectional meet, their five runner split was 45 seconds. It dropped down to 27 seconds at NXN. Logan Ramlet finished 14th individually at the state meet. He was the #1 runner in the regional meet.
NR – Sioux Falls Lincoln SD
Outlook – The South Dakota AA Champions finished third at the NXN Heartland Regional and were a surprise at-large bid to be in this meet. Individual state champion Will Lauer finished second in the regional meet and has been the front man on this team all year. They had a tight 12 second split between their second and fifth runners at the regional meet but the gap between Lauer and #2 runner Nathan Schroeder was 61 seconds. That split needs to be at 40 seconds between the two for this team to finish in the top 15.
Boys Team Outlook
Regardless of who has been ranked #1 during the season, this team competition is wide open for the national championship. American Fork UT did set a team time course record in winning their state meet, but then only won by three points ahead of state rival Davis UT at the NXN Southwest Regional. Fayetteville Manlius NY has been tough the last month sweeping to the New York Class state championship and the NXN New York Regional last weekend. They will need to have a tight pack in order to come out on top.
La Salle Academy RI was on top of the rankings at the beginning of the season. They have come on strong in the last month having eyes on the national championship. Christian Brothers NJ did not run their best race of the year last weekend at NXN Northeast, but their experience at this meet could propel them towards the top.
There are two teams that I would keep an eye on in this race that could end up in the first five. Wayzata MN could have two runners in the first 25 in this race. They have also have not raced in almost a month. Sandburg IL have been running tight splits on their first five all season. At NXN Midwest, it was only 7 seconds. They could be a threat in the national championship team chase.
Boys Individual Qualifiers (In Alphabetical Order)
Boys Individual Race Outlook
With most of the top runners opting for the race next week at the Foot Locker Nationals, all eyes will turn to Tanner Anderson (North Central HS, Spokane WA) as the favorite. Anderson has been basically untouchable this season. He did finish second to Utah’s Conner Mantz at the Bob Firman Invitational at the end of September and John Dressel (Mount Spokane WA) at the GSL MCC Regional on November 1. Still, it is Anderson’s 14:32 5k to win the Washington 3A State championship winning ahead of Dressel by 15 seconds that has the favorite’s bull’s eye on his back.
Jesse Reiser (McHenry HS IL) qualified for both of the National races for the second year in a row. He cruised at last week’s Foot Locker Midwest Race placing third. He was a little under the weather in that race. The Illinois 3A State champion otherwise has gone undefeated including his win at the NXN Midwest Regional. He is healthy and will be ready to race for the win.
Bryce Millar (Fayetteville Manlius HS NY) suffered setbacks early in the season placing second at the McQuaid Invitational at the end of September and then second behind Alex Ortberg (Darien HS CT) at the Manhattan Invitational two weeks later. He has been undefeated the rest of the year winning the New York Class A Championship and the NXN New York Regional last Saturday. He will be helping his team towards a team championship in this race. You can expect him up front.
Olin Hacker (Madison West HS WI) did what he needed to do last week at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional to advance to the national meet. He ensured the San Diego trip by finishing 10th saving his energy for his upcoming two races. He has gone undefeated the rest of the year. His state meet race was spectacular running 14:59 missing Chris Solinsky’s course record. He won the following week at the NXN Heartland Regional. He should be in the mix up front as well.
Ryan Robinson (Waterford Mott HS MI) finished just behind Reiser at the NXN Midwest Regional. He had an off race at his state meet finishing fifth but don’t let that fool you. He could be in the top five in this meet. Sukhi Khosla (Leon HS, Tallahassee FL) has been dominant all year in his state including a 3A state championship. He finished second last week at the NXN Southeast Regional behind Tennessee D1 AAA State Champion Adam Barnard (Daniel Boone HS, Gray TN). You can expect both of these runners towards the front in this race.
California will be sending some state champions up to Portland. Phillip Rocha (Arcadia HS CA) ran the fastest time of the day (14:58 for 5k) in winning the D1 Championship. Caleb Webb (Big Bear HS, Big Bear Lake CA) won the D4 Championship running 15:05. Brian Zabilski (Saugus HS CA) ran 15:07 to win the D2 championship. These three runners should be among the top 15 runners in this race.
Other runners that I would keep an eye on up front in this race include Carter Blunt (Independence HS, Frisco TX), Ben Veatch (Carmel HS IN), Paul Roberts (Lyons HS CO), Craig Corti (Walkill Valley HS, Hamburg NJ), Matt Pereria (Lake Zurich HS IL), Ryan Clevenger (North HS, Downers Grove IL), Will Lauer (Lincoln HS, Sioux Falls SD), Connor Olson (Wayzata HS, Plymouth MN), Zac Jacklin & Casey Clinger (American Fork HS UT), Tristan Peloquin (Gig Harbour WA), Ben Petrella (Liverpool HS NY), Nikhill Pulimood (Plainsboro South HS, West Windsor NJ), Stuart McNutt (Blue Valley West HS, Overland Park KS), Blaise Ferro (Christian Brothers Academy, Lincroft NJ), Reilly Bloomer (South Eugene HS OR), and Robert Brandt (Loyola HS, Los Angeles CA).
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