{"comments":{"1182347":{"pb_id":"4588","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182347","comment_id":"1182347","member_id":"4588","comment":"
<\/a>Mike Newman, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>palimmer, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>palimmer, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>Greg Beal, on , said:<\/p>
\n
\nI have to give credit to Maton and Summit HS. He made his decision long before the NXN Regional. Their team made it in on their own merits at Boise. I think this thing with Brea Olinda was in the works before we got to state. I'll keep my other opinions about this to myself.
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\n
\nDid the official NXN merge get published somewhere and I didn't see it? I see multiple references to Great Oak being left out but I haven't seen any evidence the they were top 4 in the merge.
\n
\nMy very unofficial merge has them 5th
\nhttp:\/\/www.runnerspa...dpost&p=1180632<\/a>
\n
\nRecord Timing's Mega-merge show's them 6th:
\nhttp:\/\/rtspt.com\/eve...xc2014\/boys.htm<\/a>
\n
\nI agree that Great Oak would have been the best candidate for an at-large choice based on early season performances, but I'm not certain they would have been in a position to win one based on the merges I see. If there is better information out there, please enlighten me.
\n
\nAs for Maton and Summit, it's only fair to point out that their situation was different - they went to the NXN regional specifically to qualify, and to make the decision whether or not to compete with that in mind. In California qualifying is a by-product of the state meet. It's only natural not to make a final decision until the deadline is at hand. I think we need to be careful not to condemn 17 year olds for not making the decision we think they should have, when they are working fully within the structure they got stuck with.","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 3:20pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":{"wally_id":"388","email_settings":"8191","email":"scott.joerger@gmail.com","address":"ScottJoerger","gender":"m","member_id":"4588","member_name":"Scott Joerger","avatar_location":"av-4588.jpg","avatar_type":"upload","avatar":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-4588.jpg"},"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-4588.jpg","pb_title":"Scott Joerger","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=4588","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/ScottJoerger.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"388"},"1182343":{"pb_id":"42240","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182343","comment_id":"1182343","member_id":"42240","comment":"
\nIt's team first....individual accomplishments second....
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\n
\nBrea Olinda would have definitely been a top five team if they were running with Tamango in NXN. Looking at their numbers now, I doubt if they will crack the top 10. There is nothing that can be done with how the teams from California are selected especially right after their state meet. It is just the way it is. I feel bad for Great Oak not getting the opportunity to compete.
\n
\nI have to give credit to Maton and Summit HS. He made his decision long before the NXN Regional. Their team made it in on their own merits at Boise. I think this thing with Brea Olinda was in the works before we got to state. I'll keep my other opinions about this to myself.","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 3:02pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":{"wally_id":"1019712","email_settings":"4294967295","email":"newman.dyestatil@gmail.com","address":"ILXCTF","gender":"u","member_id":"42240","member_name":"ILXCTF - Mike Newman","avatar_location":"av-42240.jpg","avatar_type":"upload","avatar":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42240.jpg"},"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42240.jpg","pb_title":"ILXCTF - Mike Newman","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=42240","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/ILXCTF.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1019712"},"1182342":{"pb_id":"4588","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182342","comment_id":"1182342","member_id":"4588","comment":"I think we need to keep the Tamagno \/ Brea Olinda situation in perspective. It's not as if Austin went to the NXN regional to help his team qualify just to walk away. He went to the CA championships and lead his team to the D3 state championships - no doubt a season long goal - and they did fulfill that goal as a team. Now he is going on to run at Foot Locker to compete for a national title which has been a post-season goal of his.
\n
\nKeep in mind that Brea Olinda is a top-10, maybe top-5, CA team without Austin Tamagno. However, it's pretty clear that they would not likely have made the NXN cut without him.
\n
\nThere two are major problems contributing to this situation (already beaten to death on these boards):
\n
\n1. There is no unified national championship. <\/strong>
\n
\nFootlocker has a long tradition and I don't blame Austin for wanting to go after that title. NXN is a great event which is building it's own tradition. Doesn't Foot Locker sell a gazillion Nikes? It would seem that these two could get together and make one supermeet.
\n
\n2. There is no stand-alone California qualifier. <\/strong>
\n
\nThe CIF merge solution is flawed. Using ndirect competition (merge) to determine the NXN slots, and weather and competition differences between the races affecting the qualifiers. I think everyone, including most Californians would like to see a better system to qualify for NXN. But the system we have is a product of the varied timing of the state meets and there is no easy solution, other than perhaps pushing NXN back a week (not good for so many states already waiting weeks).
\n
\nThere was no underhandedness going on here - the system and rules were not exploited. Tamagno and Brea did their best and are pursuing the opportunities offered to them. My understanding is that Austin has the support of his coaches and teammates to pursue FL. Still, I can see how this is troubling - especially to those teams that might have gone has Austin not competed in the qualifier.
\n
\nShould there be changes as a result of this? Probably, but I don't think it's simply telling a team their #1 runner has to run or they are out. I think the real solution is fixing 1 and 2 above, which I don't think we will see anytime soon.","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 2:51pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":{"wally_id":"388","email_settings":"8191","email":"scott.joerger@gmail.com","address":"ScottJoerger","gender":"m","member_id":"4588","member_name":"Scott Joerger","avatar_location":"av-4588.jpg","avatar_type":"upload","avatar":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-4588.jpg"},"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-4588.jpg","pb_title":"Scott Joerger","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=4588","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/ScottJoerger.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"388"},"1182340":{"pb_id":"70121","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182340","comment_id":"1182340","member_id":"70121","comment":"
\nIt's team first....individual accomplishments second....
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\n
\nworse than leaving team, is leaving team in situation where they are resented - not only by great oak, but by all that would want the best representation of the state at NXN
\n
\nof course he wanted to win a state championship and had to run - it is state champ first and nxn qualifier 2nd.
\n
\nwhy couldnt nike just make the correct call to pick next team....did they not know?","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 2:39pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"BruceS","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=70121","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/BruceS.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1535218"},"1182337":{"pb_id":"3357","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182337","comment_id":"1182337","member_id":"3357","comment":"I have some serious misgivings regarding Brea Olinda's presence at NXN.....forget about leaving your team at the eleventh hour.....that is not the issue...in most observers minds
\nIt's team first....individual accomplishments second....","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 1:53pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.gif","pb_title":"palimmer","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=3357","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/palimmer.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"4758"},"1182333":{"pb_id":"68733","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182333","comment_id":"1182333","member_id":"68733","comment":"I meant , not DQ'ed, just not sent to NXN.
\n
\nIf you take out his low stick, they are a well beaten third by 30 points?
\n
\n
\nI do not see the equity in this at all.
\n
\nWould some other team be eliminated or not qualified because of this? Where is the uproar, or should there be none.?","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 1:09pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"King999","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=68733","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/King999.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1493915"},"1182327":{"pb_id":"68733","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182327","comment_id":"1182327","member_id":"68733","comment":"First of all these absurd weather calculations especially for Calif. running are just that, a waste of time and absurd.
\n
\nTons of races all year in different groupings are run with temp. variations from AM to PM
\n
\nThis is over analysis and excuse making disguised.
\n
\n
\nOn this Tamgano thing? That team should be DQ'ed unless they clearly would have Q'ed without him.","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 1:03pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"King999","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=68733","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/King999.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1493915"},"1182258":{"pb_id":"45400","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182258","comment_id":"1182258","member_id":"45400","comment":"
\n
\nOn average, upward changes in temperature beginning at 60 degrees affect all runners to some extent (per studies done by Daniels and others).
\n
\n
\n
\n15:40 @ 50 degree heat index (Division 2\/3 boys races were at ~52 degrees w\/ a dew point of 37.9 according to Wunderground) is NO CHANGE from the 15:40 average.
\n15:40 @ 63 degree heat index (Division 1 boys race was at ~64.9 degrees w\/ a dew point of 37.0 according to Wunderground) is about halfway between the 60 and 65 degree heat index marks for 15:40 and 15:47. With the shown linear progression of 7 seconds per 5 degrees w\/ 60 degrees being the +0 point, that would suggest an adjustment of 4 seconds.
\n
\nI don't think that's really a reliable comparison, though, particularly because it's a linear progression<\/span> (I would definitely think that going from, say, 60-70 degrees would be a much lower jump than 70-80 degrees, for example). Even if it was, though, it wouldn't make a difference in the team finish order. Here's a reminder of the CA#3 and (placed) CA#4 teams:
\n
\nGreat Oak - Jurupa Hills
\n15:24.3 - 15:07.5
\n15:36.0 - 15:19.2
\n15:36.7 - 15:35.9
\n15:56.4 - 15:55.9
\n16:12.1 - 16:09.9
\n
\n... the Division 1 race would have to be adjusted by MORE than 5 seconds in order for Great Oak to pass Jurupa Hills (5 second change for D1 would result in a tie if it was a 20 team power merge).
\n
\nThat being said, I think we can all agree that it would be ideal if California had a "Championship" division (or a single class state meet, though that would add an additional week to the post-season schedule unless the SS fit 35 teams on the starting line and redid the league structure)
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\n
\nThere are several calculators similar to the one you found. Here's the one from the Jack Daniels' Run Smart site - Daniels' calculator.<\/a>
\n
\nUsing the 63 degree heat index you identified, the Daniels calculator shows a difference of six seconds at 15:40.
\n
\nAccording to Wunderground, the wind was calm at 8:30 and 9:00 am and was 5.8 mph at 11:53. Since the course is essentially out and back, the wind would have had at least a slight negative effect overall for the later races.
\n
\nSuch calculators also don't take into account the difference between a sunny and cloudy day or a course in the direct sun or one in the shade.","date_added":"Dec 2nd 2014, 5:10am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Greg Beal","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45400","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Greg-Beal.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1108424"},"1182059":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182059","comment_id":"1182059","member_id":"43715","comment":"Though I'm sure it'll change in a few days, here's a comparison of the # of Doug's Top-30 athletes that have qualified for NXN and FLN\/FLW:
\n
\nBoys \/ Girls
\nNXN: 17 \/ 19
\nFLN: 5 \/ 8
\nFLW: 5 \/ 2
\n
\n... that has to be a record low for FLN? though it does fit in with the national average of ~2\/3 of the top state finishers going to NXR (obviously higher in some areas and lower in others -- NY averaged about 80% NXN for example).
\n
\nFLN has the clear advantage this year in US Top-10 runners though at 6-4 on both sides.
\n
\n
\nAlso,
\n
\n
\n
\nWhen Ventura and Jurupa Hills ran at 8:30 and Brea at 9:00, the temps were near 50 and the sun was low in the sky. When Great Oak, Dana Hills, Madera South and Burroughs ran at 11:45, the temps were closer to 65 and the sun was overhead. The Jack Daniels temperature effect calculator suggests that a 15:35 for the early races is the equivalent of a 15:44 for the later race. Had the D1 race been run early in the day, overall field times would been faster and the results of the power merge that determined the NXN selection would have changed.
\n
\nOf course, the results are what they are - and the CIF handles this situation by rotating the races year to year so that divisional race times even out over a period of years. If it were not for NXN selection, this disparity wouldn't actually matter.
\n
\n(A side note: the girls D1 race was the last of the day and was the most affected by higher temps and the dusty course. Luckily for the selection process this year, the second place D1 team wasn't close enough to be in consideration for NXN.)
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\n
\nI haven't really ever paid attention to any "temperature effect calculators", but I can't imagine 65 degree temperatures would be effecting California runners that much. Maybe if they're acclimated to 40 degree temperatures, sure, but that's not the case for any SoCal teams.
\n
\nWhat is the Jack Daniels temperature effect calculator you mention? Google led me to this<\/a>, and in combination with Wunderground<\/a> and this<\/a> for a Heat Index calculator this is what I get for the "temperature effect calculator" numbers...
\n
\n15:40 @ 50 degree heat index (Division 2\/3 boys races were at ~52 degrees w\/ a dew point of 37.9 according to Wunderground) is NO CHANGE from the 15:40 average.
\n15:40 @ 63 degree heat index (Division 1 boys race was at ~64.9 degrees w\/ a dew point of 37.0 according to Wunderground) is about halfway between the 60 and 65 degree heat index marks for 15:40 and 15:47. With the shown linear progression of 7 seconds per 5 degrees w\/ 60 degrees being the +0 point, that would suggest an adjustment of 4 seconds.
\n
\nI don't think that's really a reliable comparison, though, particularly because it's a linear progression<\/span> (I would definitely think that going from, say, 60-70 degrees would be a much lower jump than 70-80 degrees, for example). Even if it was, though, it wouldn't make a difference in the team finish order. Here's a reminder of the CA#3 and (placed) CA#4 teams:
\n
\nGreat Oak - Jurupa Hills
\n15:24.3 - 15:07.5
\n15:36.0 - 15:19.2
\n15:36.7 - 15:35.9
\n15:56.4 - 15:55.9
\n16:12.1 - 16:09.9
\n
\n... the Division 1 race would have to be adjusted by MORE than 5 seconds in order for Great Oak to pass Jurupa Hills (5 second change for D1 would result in a tie if it was a 20 team power merge).
\n
\nThat being said, I think we can all agree that it would be ideal if California had a "Championship" division (or a single class state meet, though that would add an additional week to the post-season schedule unless the SS fit 35 teams on the starting line and redid the league structure)","date_added":"Dec 1st 2014, 8:37pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":302788,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1182052":{"pb_id":"43675","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1182052","comment_id":"1182052","member_id":"43675","comment":"